The article below was taken from the Sun Sentinel's Storm Center website:
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Expect an active to extremely active storm season that could be almost as intense as 2005, government forecasters said today.
They released an outlook calling for 14-23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes. They call for three to seven of the hurricanes to be major, with sustained winds greater than 110 mph.
If the outlook holds true, it would be one of the most active seasons on record. In 2005, historically the most active year, 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes emerged. The average season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two intense.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook, released during a press conference in Washington, D.C., makes no attempt to say how many storms will strike land or what parts of the coastline are most at risk.
However, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said, "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”
Like other climatic experts, those at NOAA said abnormally warm waters in the tropical Atlantic combined with the disappearance of El Niño should fuel the season.
Indeed, it’s possible that La Niña, El Niño’s polar opposite, could emerge over the summer, a factor that could make for a hyperactive season, experts say.
“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be," Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster, said. "Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer."
He added that at present, the atmosphere is "in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”
While El Niño creates strong wind shear that disrupts storm formation, La Niña calms the atmosphere, allowing systems to grow.
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 - this Tuesday - and runs through Nov. 30.
Last May, NOAA predicted nine to 14 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes. Of those, it expected one to three to be major.
The season actually saw nine named storms, including three hurricanes, two intense, making for the slowest year since 1997.
NOAA officials say the seasonal outlook is meant to be a guide, to let people know what’s in store. No matter how many storms are forecast, they urge residents to prepare the same each year – as though at least one hurricane might hit.
NOAA will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, prior to what is historically the peak of the hurricane season.
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2010 forecast as busy year for hurricanes
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
The Atlantic basin is facing a busier-than-usual hurricane season, in part because of record warm water in the ocean, according to the latest hurricane forecast.
Colorado State University's forecast, released Wednesday, calls for 15 named tropical storms this year in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. The team says eight will become hurricanes, with sustained winds reaching 74 mph. Four are expected to be major hurricanes — Categories 3, 4 or 5 — with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
The average Atlantic hurricane season, going back to 1950, has 10 named storms — six of them hurricanes, and two of those major.
"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69%, compared with the last-century average of 52%," says William Gray, a member of Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project.
At the end of March, the part of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form was the warmest it has ever been for this time of year, says Phil Klotzbach, the team's lead forecaster. "The average water temperature is about 78 degrees," he says. Hurricanes need water temperatures of about 80 degrees to form.
Forecasters say the unusually warm water, coupled with the diminishing El Niño in the Pacific, will lead to an active season. El Niño produces strong winds at upper levels of the atmosphere that tear developing hurricanes apart, which is what caused the quiet season last year.
Insurance companies, emergency managers and the news media use the forecasts from Colorado State to prepare Americans for the season's likely hurricane threat.
Since 2000, the team has under-forecast the number of named tropical storms and hurricanes four times, over-forecast three times, and been almost right — within two storms — three times, a USA TODAY analysis shows. In 2009, the team predicted 12 named storms and six hurricanes. Nine named storms actually formed, including three hurricanes.
Last month, the private forecasting firm AccuWeather predicted 16 to 18 tropical storms and hurricanes would form, and seven would make landfall on U.S. shores.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The first named storm will be Alex.
TOWNHOUSES AT JACARANDA CONDOMINIUM ASSOC.
8201 NW 8 Street · Plantation, Florida 33324
Phone: (954) 472-2283 · Fax: (954) 472-3857
Board of Directors
Wendi Hill, President
John Lovell, Vice-President
Phyllis Fabara, Treasurer
Paulette Watson, Secretary
Ben Odebralski, Assistant Secretary
Mark Morgenstern, Director
Carol Hazan, Director
Dear Unit Owners and Residents,
There have been some recent developments in regard to our Hurricane Wilma insurance claim for building damage. It looks as if we may reach a resolution on this painstakingly long ordeal we have been subjected to. Our appointed judge, after hearing a recent motion, has allowed the insurance company ninety days to investigate for mold damage. The short story is that we desperately need your cooperation in facilitating an inspection of the unit interiors. The inspection of the unit interiors will begin this Monday, the 22nd of March. Our representatives from Epic Adjusters and maintenance staff will accompany the insurance company’s inspectors from Rimkus Consulting Group as they look for damage in the units.
Please be sure to let the inspectors know of any and every place that has leaked after the storm, even if the area no longer leaks, or has been repaired.
1. Please point out areas that were water stained, even if they have been repaired since the storm.
2. Point out any fixtures that are rusted due to leaks as a result of the storm.
3. Point out any soft drywall or soft exterior wood paneling, even if it simply got worse after the storm.
4. If you can see any water stains on the underside of the roof by looking in your attic, please photograph it, or let us know. This is to check for any damaged or failing roof structure.
5. Please provide to our office (and only our office) any pictures of hurricane damage that you have.
6. If you filed your own hurricane claim with your own insurance company, any documentation or records showing this will be instrumental in furthering our case. Please stop by our office and allow us to make copies of these items.
**Please contact the office and let us know the day and time that you will be available for inspections in order to schedule you in accordingly**
This is a very important and time sensitive matter and we greatly appreciate your cooperation.
With Regards,
Townhouses at Jacaranda
I have a cousin in Holland Michigan who incurred $20,000 in flood damage due to heavy rains this past spring. Neither she nor her neighbors lived in a flood zone, so she did not have flood insurance. Consequently, I am investigating getting flood insurance for our home.Keeping shingles on your house is extremely important. Check to make sure they are well secured to the roof, particularly along the roof edges.
A common problem is that edge shingles are not well fastened or extend beyond the drip edge more than the 1/4” typically recommended for high wind areas. Once the perimeter shingles lift off, a peeling process starts and creates a domino effect.
The attachment of perimeter shingles can easily be checked by gently trying to lift the lower edge of the shingle. If it comes up without much effort (older shingles become brittle and may crack when bent too much), then you should secure them, which is easy.
If you find that a lot of shingles, including ones away from the edge, are poorly adhered, budget for a new roof in the near future. There have been significant improvements in shingles and the adhesive strips that anchor them to the ones below. New high wind rated shingles installed according to manufacturer’s recommendations for high wind areas and with extra edge sealing performed very well in the hurricanes of 2004.
Repair or replace shingles around any area that allows water to penetrate the roof sheathing. Leaks are particularly common around chimneys, plumbing vents and attic vents. To trace the source of a ceiling leak, measure its location from the nearest outside wall and then locate this point in the attic using a measuring tape. Keep in mind that the water may run along the attic floor, rafters, or truss for quite a distance before coming through the ceiling.
Use roofing cement in 10 oz. caulk tubes that fit ordinary caulk guns to secure roof shingles. It's inexpensive and one tube is enough for about 25 feet of shingles. Perimeter shingles include those along the eaves and gable edges, plus the ones on the ridge and hips. Place three 1" diameter dabs under each shingle tab (near the edges and in the middle). On gable ends, secure the three shingle tabs closest to the gable edge. If the roof is not too steep, an able-bodied person with practical skills should accomplish this in just a few hours.
